The Palestinian State between International Law and Political Reality: Opportunities for International Recognition and UN Membership after October 7, 2023 10.35781/1637-000-159-006

Abstract

This study examines the trajectory of the Palestinian state, navigating between legal developments and the complex political reality, with a focus on the rapid developments in the Palestinian cause following October 7, 2023. The study aims to analyze the opportunities for expanding international recognition of the State of Palestine and the possibility of its obtaining full membership in the United Nations, in light of the legal and political transformations affecting the Palestinian cause, the region, and the world. The study employs a descriptive-analytical approach to analyze international texts and legal opinions. In answering the research questions, the study arrives at the following conclusions: First, regarding the evolution of Palestine's legal status, the International Court of Justice's advisory opinion issued in July 2024 affirmed the illegality of the Israeli occupation, representing a major legal turning point. Second, concerning the impact of international transformations, the study reveals that the new wave of international recognitions of the State of Palestine in 2025 strengthened the Palestinian legal position; however, the repeated use of the US veto has prevented Palestine from obtaining full membership in the United Nations. Third, regarding the nature of the current Palestinian struggle, the study concludes that it has shifted from bilateral negotiations to the arenas of international law and international forums. The study also analyzed the implications of the proposed Gaza reconstruction and administration plan on the future of the Palestinian state. It concluded that the success of any Gaza reconstruction and administration plan hinges on its respect for full Palestinian sovereignty over the Gaza Strip and the preservation of Palestinian territory. The study further found that a temporary international administration could jeopardize the unity of Palestinian territory if it is not phased, objectively defined, and based on a clear Palestinian mandate. The study also demonstrated that existing legal gains (such as observer status at the United Nations, international recognition, and the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice) provide crucial legal grounds that prevent the imposition of any arrangements that infringe upon Palestinian sovereignty over the Gaza Strip. Keywords: Palestinian state, international law, right to self-determination, Security Council, settlements, Sovereignty.